A longer thread on Russian visas, taxes and how we Estonians are:
Ever since independence 31 years ago, the Baltic States and occasionally Poland as well have been continuously threatened by Russia, both officially as well as in the state-controlled media.
1/n
We have been threatened with invasion, with nuclear waste; our gas has been repeatedly cut — ever since 1991. Putin has said Russia will regain its “historical borders”, i.e. its borders 110 years ago, which also included Finland.
2/n
In Estonia in 2007 a riot of local Russians was organized by the Russian government, its embassy as well as provocateurs — “Nashi”, who got here by getting Finnish visas and coming over from Finland. (for obvious reasons we had temporarily closed the border)
3/n
It was obvious that when this awful war started, publics in the front-line states in the EU and NATO — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland — and a Russian media constantly bragging about how Russia would invade us next, would want to seal our vulnerable borders. I.e.,
4/n
stop granting visas to Russian passport holders.
As you would expect, this provoked a reaction. “How dare you violate our human rights!” — which once again revealed the Russian understanding of human rights, of what is a "right" and what is not.
5/n
Visas are privileges, not rights. You have no right to just enter a country. We shall leave out the Russian joke about tanks not needing visas. It's one of those jokes that only strengthens our resolve. Visas are *granted*, not passed out.
6/n
One line of argument re: Russia has been: “you should give Russians visas, they will see what it’s like to live in the West”. Yes, propagandist Margarita Simonyan even spent a year in the US based on this naive belief that living in the West will turn you into a democrat.🤷🏻♂️
7/n
As I wrote in response, Estonia is not a social welfare agency for solving Russia’s problems. We have no obligation whatsoever to do that:
More annoying was the advice I got from Russians and others telling me Estonia should take Russian IT experts as they are low-cost and that without low-cost IT labor Estonia's IT sector wouldn't be able to compete.😂
9/n
Kinda funny saying this to a country that invented Skype and today has 10 native unicorns, (or 1 for every 130k inhabitants, higest in the world). We hire talent from Apple, Netflix, Spotify. That is the arrogance of ignorance, which we often run into in the West as well.
10/n
In the particular case, however, we do have let in one of these model IT immigrants we are urged to take. Unfortunately and contrary to the idea that instead of depriving Russia of IT talent, all we did was import lawlessness, and Estonia- and Ukrainophobia.
11/n
A certain Ms X, whining about high Estonian taxes and how she didn’t want her money to go to help Ukrainian refugees Estonia, boasted and described on Twitter how she flouts Estonian tax law.
Mind you, this is an immigrant who enjoys Estonia's considerable modern services.
12/n
Now what you need to understand is that in Estonia we are, believe it or not, actually proud to pay our taxes. It's what has put us ahead. We boast who gets their taxes done first and how fast we do it (virtually all personal taxes are done on line for over 20 years).
13/n
This is part of Estonia’s transformation from a corrupt and lawless ex-commie dump, to where today we share with Ireland 10th place in the world in rankings of rule of law.
Russia is 101, behind Tanzania but just ahead of the Philippines.
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So to sum up, our reluctance to take Russians in at this time is based on: 1. Estonia's history of mass deportations, brutal occupation and russification during 50 years, experiencing what Ukrainians in Russian occupied areas suffer today: killings, rapes, torture, looting
15/n
2. A 30+ year experience with Russia threatening to invade us, to "show us who's boss" cutting off gas supplies, kidnapping our people and using “tourists” to foment a riot.
3. A deep skepticism about transforming Russians who come here into non-imperialist democrats.
16/n
4. Experience with being taken advantage of by people like the rude Ms X who flout our laws and flaunt it. Thereby showing complete disrespect to our way of life.
5. Local Russian ukrainophobia/ hostility directed at people Estonians very much support, admire and feel for.
17/n
In short, give it a break. Leave us alone, we've had enough of our neighbor's behavior, here and in Ukraine.
And end visas (tourist, work, etc.) for Russian passport holders to come to the European Union and exploit our good will.
18/fin
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1/5 SECOND LOOK: "Azov batallion ID" presented by FSB, as basic online forensic tools see it. Forensically reveals the quality time the photoshop artist spent with clone tool, due to some darn fine pattern. #dugina#UkraineWar#FSB#fake
2/5 Nothing beats a killer shadow effect. No limits to what you can achieve with some gaussian blur.
3/5 How do you call those jpeg error levels not matching up when pasting an object to background? Provokaziya.
🧵Meet Maria Adela Kuhfeldt Rivera, widow, jeweller, and socialite. The love child of a German father and a Peruvian mother, born in Callao, Peru, and abandoned in Moscow by her mother during the 1980 Olympic Games.
As she would tell her friends as an adult, she was raised by a Soviet couple her mother had befriended shortly before abandoning her. The couple treated Maria Adela badly, leading to Maria Adela seeking a better life abroad.
Between 2009 and 2011 she lived and studied in Western Europe, befriending people such as Marcelle D’Argy Smith, former editor of the UK edition of Cosmopolitan magazine, whom she met over drinks in Malta in the summer of 2010.
In July 2022, @conflictarm returned to #Ukraine to continue to document components of Russian weapons. There, we made an interesting discovery. Follow along... 1/19
We documented parts of the SN-99 satellite navigation systems of three different Russian cruise missiles: the 3M14, the Kh-59, and the Kh-101 2/19
We had already documented the satellite navigation system of a 9M544 rocket back in May 2022, and it looked exactly the same 3/19
It took a long time for younger East Europeans to get over the stories by grandmothers and parents of the Russians' indiscriminate killing of civilians, the deportations, looting, rapes and arrests where some were found dead with horrendous torture and others never found. 1/n
In the past 15 days, all this has come back. On video. Some 100 million East Europeans now understand the stories were not exaggerated.
It may be unfair but that is once again the dominant image of Russians. The bombing of evacuation corridors, maternity hospitals,
2/n
...the disappearances, the humiliation of citizens of a country Russians invaded.
That is the face of the Russian to those 100 million.
Not Tolstoy, not Tchaikovsky, not Ahmatova or Brodsky.
When you see a murder, you see only the murderer, not some figures from the past. 3/n
We are amidst the greatest security crisis in Europe since the Cuban Missile crisis in 1962. Of I/Os, the UN and CoE have been utterly irrelevant, a feeble attempt was made with the OSCE, and the EU's main contribution has been to whine about being ignored by Russia, US & NATO.
In the future we need a rethink of which legacy I/Os are fit for purpose. The UN for development assistance and refugees, fine. Security? Hardly, especially with an octagenarian SC legacy P5. CoE long ago lost any legitimacy as a normative human rights org by re-instating Russia.
I remain hopeful for the EU if it learns from its irrelevancy in this security crisis. It should start by 1) not whining, 2) planning now for a potential flood of millions of Ukrainian refugees all of whom have visa free travel to the EU. This is possible now without any reforms.
My predictions on with what Russia's manufactured crisis will end up with:
1. Putin doesn't invade but as a Parthian shot initiates a serious of nasty cyber attacks on Ukraine that will be hard to prove but clear to everyone.
2. No one, will be any closer to joining NATO. 1/n
3. In Sweden less and Finland more, the Overton Window on NATO membership will have moved significantly with a once taboo topic now comme il faut.
4. Having been ignored for so long by the EU, CEE concerns will be taken slightly more seriously by soi-disant "Old Members" 2/n
5. Having been completely ignored and sidelined in the crisis and getting a taste of what it's like for CEE, the EU as a whole will either:
A. Get serious finally on security and defense, or
B. Give up on the fiction of being a serious player.
Sarkozy flew about, announced a "Peace Plan", that froze the EU-Russia "Partnership and Co-operation agreement" until Russia withdrew its troops from Georgia.
A month later, with no troops gone, Sarkozy instead assailed Eastern members, threw out the troop withdrawal part (2/x)
at a meeting of the EU Council, and exclaimed "Thank God common sense prevailed!". This about his own "Peace Agreement" that a month earlier, redolent of Chamberlain, he had announced as an achievement of the French presidency.
@steven_pifer Minus the hipsterisms, "Everyone wants to avoid a major war in Europe, right?" is a restatement of classic appeasement of an aggressor at the expense of the victim. All one needs to add is a "quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing", especially:
@steven_pifer "there's no plausible amount of whacking (or threatened whacking) that would fundamentally alter Russia's calculus unless...there's a negotiation in which they get some of what they want."
I.e., we get "Peace in our time", if we give the Russians/Nazis, some of what they want.
@steven_pifer For one, it didn't work too well the first time, did it?
Instead it merely encouraged them.
Secondly, the whole point of the Post WWII is you don't arrogantly decide -- a la Munich, Molotov-Ribbentrop, Yalta -- the fates of nations over their heads.